Bitcoin’s disappointing run through November may soon give way to a more optimistic December, according to a new outlook from Coinbase Institutional. Despite ETF outflows and weak risk sentiment dragging prices lower, underlying metrics point to resilience beneath the surface — setting the stage for a potential shift in momentum as the year closes.
Coinbase analysts argue that November’s pullback reflected temporary market fatigue rather than a deeper structural issue. While Bitcoin slipped amid tightening financial conditions and falling ETF demand, core indicators such as network activity and long-term holder accumulation remained strong. This suggests the market’s foundation is far healthier than the price action implied.
The firm also pointed out that the bulk of selling pressure came from short-term traders responding to volatility, not institutions offloading positions. Long-term holders continued to add to their stacks through the month, showing confidence that Bitcoin’s macro trend remains intact. This behavior, Coinbase says, prevented the slump from turning into a more aggressive breakdown.
Coinbase notes that December has historically delivered stronger price performance for Bitcoin, thanks to year-end positioning, portfolio rebalancing, and improved liquidity conditions. As institutions adjust their books and capital flows normalize, renewed demand often supports a recovery in digital assets — and Bitcoin may benefit the most.
Signs of that shift are already emerging. Whale accumulation has picked up, derivatives market positioning is turning more constructive, and ETF outflows are beginning to stabilize after weeks of steady selling. If these trends continue, Coinbase believes Bitcoin could transition from “November blues” to authentic December optimism, potentially setting a stronger tone heading into early 2026.
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