The price of Bitcoin remains around the $115,000 threshold amid increasing caution among investors. It is for those who are seeing steady outflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) even as large holder groups, or whales, keep building in the background.
Last week’s ETF data reflects investor anxiety: Bitcoin ETF products had daily outflows of $121 million. It accounts for a weekly 3% depreciation and a monthly 2.5% depreciation, which has left BTC some 7% lower than its all-time high.
This trend is a market sentiment concern. A recent ETF outflow shows institutions are cautious in the short term.
On-chain data report whales purchased roughly 20,000 BTC since March despite ETF troubles. Their accumulation has surged remarkably in recent weeks. Historically, whale accumulation has preceded some of the strong rallies, such as those above $70K and $100K, when reserve levels on exchanges decreased and supplies dwindled.
Bitcoin is below the 4-hour chart’s midline of its Bollinger Bands, which shows continuing downward pressure. But contracting bands hint at a possible big move on the horizon.
Crossed indices: bearish on MACD, bullish on Bull-Bear power. Decisive is the $114,000 zone of support—holding onto which may lay the ground for a potential trajectory towards $118K–$120K, a breakdown can lay grounds for breakdowns towards $110K–$103K.
Analyst Rekt Capital notes that similar minor pullbacks in previous cycles (2017, 2021) presaged rallies, and such a retreat could be good news if support holds.
There are various discrepancies in ETF flows. IBIT of BlackRock is still in the number one position with strong inflows, while smaller funds like Valkyrie and WisdomTree are hit by huge outflows. Independently, IBIT had posted a one-day inflow of $524 million, even when others lost money. It shows varied attitudes fund-wise among investors.
The recent pull-back around $115,000 is evidence of institutionally motivated short-term caution, sentiment dampened by ETF outflows. Steady whale accumulation, though, shows underlying conviction and could settle markets down. A hold at $114,000 and continuation of accumulation would keep a rally towards $120,000, or even a retest of all-time highs, on the table. A breakdown below risks further corrections. Market direction will be a function of technical levels, ETF flows, and whales.
Investors should keep watch as these dynamics continue to unfold.
